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Anticipating Future Disruptions in Building Resilience Sean Ahrens 12 September 2024 Draft It’s challenging to predict the exact timing and impact of technological changes on disruption. However, as building owners work towards enhancing resilience—through refining operational procedures, planning capital improvements for existing systems, and designing new facilities—it becomes crucial to anticipate potential future disruptions. The scenarios outlined below offer a broad overview of when disruptions might occur and the possible best- and worst-case outcomes. Let’s start by looking further into the future and then move towards the present: 2040 to 2050: In the next 20 to 30 years, quantum computing is expected to become a reality, necessitating new encryption methods for all building electronics, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and communication systems to defend against these powerful technologies. Quantum computing could, for instance, enable unauthorized control over phones, surveillance of conversations, remote camera activation, data theft, and the propagation of malicious code, akin to the spread of a virus. Cloud-based artificial intelligence systems will likely manage hundreds of buildings and security systems remotely, including robotics, intrusion detection, and countermeasures. AI has the potential to analyze vast amounts of data and identify threats that human operators would miss. For example, AI could detect someone sketching a building as a potential threat based on the time, duration, and other activities during the event. These systems could also autonomously recognize emergencies like fires or armed assailants, directing first responders and building occupants as a human would. 2029 to 2030: Within the next 5 to 10 years, fully autonomous vehicles will likely become widespread. However, these vehicles could be vulnerable to remote hacking, potentially turning them into tools for attacks on civilians. Security teams might use autonomous vehicles for parking lot patrols, equipped with high-definition cameras to monitor suspicious activities, with 8G communication facilitating real-time interaction between operators and potential threats. As technology advances, lightweight personal aircraft could emerge, designed to transport prominent individuals to and from remote locations. The concern over hacking these aircraft will mirror the challenges faced by autonomous vehicles. 2025 to 2028: In the short term, we may witness a drone attack on a commercial property, particularly one associated with transportation or large crowds. The increasing availability of information on the DarkNet, advancements in 3D printing, and the simplicity of drone construction and deployment contribute to this threat. Simultaneously, the security guard industry is set to undergo a significant transformation. Economically viable four-legged robotic officers will replace human exterior and stairwell patrols. Motorized robots will assist with concierge duties in lobbies, manage visitor check-ins, and patrol building interiors, integrating with elevator systems. Buildings that once required multiple security staff per shift could soon rely on an army of tireless robots, patrolling stairs, detecting fires and leaks, reporting hazards, and responding to intrusions under central station operators’ direction. In the near future, mobile technologies will advance further, replacing passwords and access control cards, potentially making it easier for social engineers to gain unauthorized access to buildings. Emerging Technologies and Security Concerns: These devices will utilize GPS and indoor positioning for emergency response, virtual tours, and assistance requests. Mobile devices will evolve into visor-like interfaces, combining augmented reality to provide instantaneous audio and visual information. We may also see the emergence of polymorphic and metamorphic viruses that are operating system agnostic, spreading through mobile phones, Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi connections. These viruses will replicate rapidly and use cloud-based machine learning to establish connections with other mobile devices and networks. Notably, researchers have already created and published the Blue borne exploit, a precursor to this kind of threat. Disruption is a pressing concern for businesses today, whether responding to current events or anticipating future challenges. This is equally true for security. Historical mass casualty attacks, like those at Khobar Towers and Columbine, led many facilities to adopt sophisticated technology platforms, surveillance tools, and emergency communication systems. The threat of car and truck explosives also prompted a focus on standoff distance in building design to enhance resilience. While disruptive changes can happen rapidly, buildings are slow to adapt. Therefore, it’s vital for building owners to stay informed about potential disruptions and incorporate them into resilience plans. Monitoring Potential Disruptive Developments: Predicting which factors will be disruptive is difficult, but the following eight developments could significantly impact security practices. This list is not a forecast but rather a guide for building owners to monitor: Darknet (ToR): Initially developed by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory in the mid-1990s for secure and anonymous communication, the ToR network has since become known as the Darknet. This hidden part of the internet, accessible only with a specialized browser, offers a marketplace for stolen identities, credit cards, weapons, 3D printing templates, and even hackers for hire. The Darknet poses a disruption risk by providing aggressors with the tools to conduct attacks while minimizing detection chances. Most building owners are not monitoring the Darknet for potential vulnerabilities. Cloud Computing: Cloud computing shifts software and hardware from on-premise to off-premise data centers. Users of cloud-based systems typically do not need to purchase hardware, as devices like access control panels or cameras transmit data back to the cloud. Manufacturers favor cloud-based systems for their recurring revenue potential, made possible by advances in data connectivity. The challenge lies in the security of these systems, which depends entirely on the third-party hosting the building owner’s data. Smartphones: Since their introduction in 2007, smartphones have evolved to include a wide array of onboard sensors, making them incredibly versatile. They can also be equipped with external sensors, like infrared cameras or wireless antennas. The question now is how far this technology will go and how it might be exploited by those with malicious intent. Drones: Unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, are now commercially affordable and have been used in a variety of innovative ways, from package delivery to racing. However, drones also pose potential security risks, such as carrying firearms or hacking equipment. The technology continues to advance, with drones becoming smaller and more versatile, as demonstrated by the “swarm” technology